The pathways to:
Geothermal Heating & Cooling Commercial Liftoff
Geothermal heating and cooling technologies are important and underutilized solutions for supporting a more resilient, efficient, and affordable national energy system, as well as reducing emission from buildings.
Both Geothermal Heat Pumps (GHPs) and Thermal Energy Networks (TENs) are transformative technologies that are highly efficient, versatile in their deployment, and provide solutions for many ongoing problems facing America’s built infrastructure.
The efficient electrification of buildings is contributing to projections that suggest the U.S. power grid is entering a new era of potentially unprecedented growth, and peak power demand may also be entering a new era of growth in both summer and winter. With liftoff, these technologies can play a key part in building energy resilience, maximizing efficiency, and cultivating a skilled workforce.
What are Geothermal Heat Pumps?
Geothermal heat pumps (GHPs) operate similarly to air-source heat pumps (ASHPs)—using a refrigeration cycle to move heat for heating or cooling—but use the ground as a source and sink of heat, as opposed to the outdoor air. In many cases or regions, GHPs are more efficient, have lower operating costs, and confer greater grid benefits than traditional heating and cooling options.
What are Thermal Energy Networks (TENs)?
Thermal Energy Networks also utilize heat pumps connected to an ambient temperature loop. This ambient temperature loop is connected to many buildings with their own heat exchangers, as well as any number of sources or sinks, including a geothermal borehole field. These systems build upon the core strengths of GHPs, but provide the possibility of even greater efficiency gains, as heating and cooling loads can be balanced across even more processes.
Geothermal heating and cooling systems have a multi-pronged and unique value proposition among building efficiency upgrades.
- When accounting for weather conditions across the United States, GHPs have the highest coefficient of performance of all heat pump options in almost every state.
- When deployed at scale, the reduction in peak loads in all seasons and related reduction in new generation capacity to serve peak demand provide significant cost savings associated benefits to the grid can be very large when compared to other electrification scenarios.
- Geothermal heating and cooling systems require many of the same skills and occupations utilized in the fossil industry and gas distribution system, providing a transition path and good jobs for displaced fossil workers.
The Path to Liftoff
The geothermal heating and cooling industry can stay on track to reach its full market potential in 2050 with a steady industry annual growth rate of ~10% and can reach liftoff in 2035 with the installation of the equivalent of 7M homes and a $100-150B investment.
- This growth rate is achievable through 2035 by maintaining the expected growth in retrofit installations and focusing on increasing the growth of installed systems in new builds, which have lower barriers for installations and will help make initial progress on imperatives to can more easily scale.
- The growth rate is achievable after 2035 by maintaining continued growth of new builds and focusing on increasing the growth of installed systems in retrofits.
Imperatives and Potential Solutions
Scale and train workforce
Develop and standardize market-ready products and protocols
Develop ratemaking or other frameworks to incorporate benefits and refine planning
Clarify and standardize regulations
Realize network effects
The U.S. Department of Energy, in partnership with other federal, state, and local agencies, has tools to address challenges to commercial liftoff and is committed to working with communities and the private sector to build the nation’s clean energy infrastructure in a way that meets the country’s climate, economic, and environmental justice imperatives.